Sin City Raiders

As we prepare to head into a new year, it has been same old, same old in one of football’s most historic divisions, but signs of change are stronger than they have been in several years. Despite the Kansas City Chiefs looking as vulnerable as they have since Patrick Mahomes replaced Alex Smith, they are in position to clinch yet another AFC West title. But they haven’t made it easy on themselves.

After a Week 1 loss to the Detroit Lions, Kansas City seemed to right the ship as they won six straight. But then, two weeks after a game against the Denver Broncos that was a little close for comfort, the Chiefs would lose in their rematch with Denver, 24-9.

Their troubles continued. The Chiefs were 2-3 coming out of their bye. But despite the five game stretch where Mahomes must have felt the rest of the offense was pranking him, Kansas City had their chance to clinch the AFC West, again, with a Christmas Day home game against the Las Vegas Raiders. But again, their troubles continued. Two turnovers became Raider touchdowns on back to back plays and it dug the Chiefs into a hole they couldn’t dig out of. It was a sign of change for a team that once assembled a clutch scoring drive in 13 seconds against the Buffalo Bills. Against the Raider defense, Mahomes and company only scored two touchdowns in 60 minutes.

Speaking of that Raider defense, they have scored two touchdowns in two consecutive games and for the first time since, well, I can’t remember when, the Raiders finally have a defense that they can be proud of. The win at Arrowhead on Christmas kept their playoff hopes alive as the Raiders still have a 12% chance to make the playoffs and a 2% chance to win the division.

These slim, but mathematically possible, playoff hopes have to be a surprise for even the most optimistic Raider fans as they have endured yet another season that saw a coaching change several weeks in. Usually, an in-season coaching change is just a head start for a rebuild for the upcoming offseason. That has not been the case in Las Vegas as Antonio Pierce’s Raiders look like they have already rebuilt from the Josh McDaniels Raiders.

Pierce’s Raiders are 4-3 in the seven games with the interim coach and they are the only other team in the division with a chance of dethroning the Chiefs. Raider Nation has to wonder, if only Mark Davis made the change earlier and maybe the Raiders win at Chicago and/or Detroit, what could their playoff hopes be.

Another team in the division also changed coaches, but it hasn’t sparked them the way Pierce has sparked the Raiders.

Down in Los Angeles, anyone following the Chargers knew that Brandon Staley’s firing had to be imminent. Sure, he has had bad luck as the Chargers played in an unbelievable amount of one-score games and had injuries keep the team from playing at their full potential. But Staley’s resume coming in was highlighted by his time with their stadiummates; the Rams. The success Staley had with L.A. didn’t follow him to, well, L.A. Since 2022, the Chargers defense ranks in the 20s in points-allowed-per-game.

Dean Spanos stuck with Staley through the playoff loss to Jacksonville, the season-finale loss to the Raiders the year before, and all the questionable fourth-down attempts in between. But Spanos finally saw enough when those aforementioned Antonio Pierce Raiders came into SoFi and handed the Chargers a historical defeat in front of a national Thursday night audience. It was a loss that prompted not just a coaching change, but a full-on house-cleaning as Spanos also booted general manager Tom Telesco. They have a roster that should be attractive for the biggest names of the head coaching candidates going into 2024 and they should be drafting between the fifth and eighth pick. Charger fans have good reason to be bolting up with the excitement 2024 could bring. But 2023 has to be considered a disappointment, unless you consider Staley’s firing a moral victory.

Last but not least, perhaps the biggest roller-coaster of a season in the division was in Denver, and they didn’t even change coaches mid-season. They started 1-5, but in that fifth loss, they hung tough against the Chiefs. The Broncos would follow that up two weeks later with a win in their rematch and then would go on to win in Buffalo, and before anyone knew it, they were riding high with a 6-5 record as the calendar turned to December.

Denver is currently 1-3 in December and most recently lost at Mile High on Christmas Eve to a New England team with a bottom-five record in the league. The ride appears to be over as Sean Payton has made the decision today to bench Russell Wilson and start their backup, Jarrett Stidham for the final two games.

Although the quarterback already has a massive contract, it could become even more costly if Wilson is injured. Per ESPN, Wilson is guaranteed $39 million in 2024 whether he is with the team or not, but he also has an additional $37 million that would become guaranteed if he cannot pass a physical in early March. Also, as a hypothetical post-June 1st release, it would be cap-hits of $35.4 million in 2024 and $49.6 million in 2025. Denver would also owe Wilson $39 million in cash for 2024. And trading Wilson before June 1 would leave the Broncos with a staggering $68 million in dead money next year, unless Denver could convince the acquiring team to pay his $22 million option bonus.

Just a few weeks ago, the Broncos looked like they had a realistic shot of ending the Chiefs reign atop the AFC West. But now, they appear to be waving the white flag on 2023 and maybe even on their starting quarterback.

All in all, the AFC West has been as crazy as ever in 2023. But with everything being said, the Chiefs are just one win, or one Raider loss, away from winning the division again. However, Kansas City has been far from dominant. Their first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback has been disappointed more than ever by his receivers. Travis Kelce is making more news for his vaccine back-and-forth with Aaron Rodgers and his dating life than he is for his play on the field.

With two games to play, the division looks to be as follows. The Chiefs need to figure out their passing game to make a push in the playoffs. The Raiders will be playing hard to get Antonio Pierce’s interim label removed. The Broncos are thinking out loud on what their quarterback situation will be next year and the Chargers locker room (at least the active players) is auditioning for their next head coach.

It is far too early to think about how the 2024 season will play out, but if it picks up where 2023 leaves off, their could finally be a new AFC West champion. For the first time since 2018, that doesn’t feel crazy to say.